Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2020 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A complex upper pattern is forecast to be in place across the CONUS early D4/Thursday, with a mature cyclone likely near the Ozark Plateau and another cyclone to its west over the Four Corners. Model guidance quickly diverges regarding the overall pattern evolution, with notable run-to-run variability, particularly with the deterministic GFS. GEFS also shows very large standard deviations over the eastern CONUS after D4/Thursday. Even so, recent runs have trended towards consensus of a Rex block pattern over the western CONUS by D6/Saturday. Even with the uncertainty regarding the overall pattern evolution, severe thunderstorm potential appears to be quite low. Low-level moisture may advect far enough inland to support modest instability across the central Gulf Coast on D4/Thursday and Mid-Atlantic Coast on D5/Friday. However, severe potential is still expected to remain quite low. Stable conditions are currently anticipated across the CONUS this weekend.
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