SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Dec 01 2020 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST AND FAR SOUTHWEST LA... CORRECTED TO FIX GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over the middle/upper Texas Coast and far southwest Louisiana on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A pair of upper cyclones are forecast to be embedded within a larger cyclonic circulation over the Plains Wednesday morning. The northernmost upper cyclone will likely be centered near the WY/CO border while the southernmost upper cyclone will likely be centered over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK. The southernmost cyclone is expected to slowly move eastward/northeastward over OK while enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base spreads northeastward into the mid MS Valley. The northernmost cyclone is expected to move southwestward towards the Four Corners region. At the surface, low associated with the southernmost upper cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the TX/OK Red River Valley, before gradually progressing northeastward while occluding. A cold front extending southward from this low will move eastward/southeastward across central and east TX, reaching the coast by Wednesday afternoon and the TX/LA border Wednesday night. ...Middle/Upper TX Coast...Far Southwest LA... Upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints are expected to advect into the middle and upper TX coast ahead of the approaching cold front, contributing to modest instability as temperatures warm into the upper 60s/low 70s. Moderate southeasterly low-level winds are also anticipated ahead of the front, resulting in looping low-level hodographs and kinematic environment that supports low-level updraft rotation. Given the modest instability, most deep updrafts will likely be transient and disorganized. However, any more persistent updrafts could become organized enough to produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2020
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