SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Tue Dec 01 2020

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST AND FAR SOUTHWEST LA...

CORRECTED TO FIX GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over the
middle/upper Texas Coast and far southwest Louisiana on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A pair of upper cyclones are forecast to be embedded within a larger
cyclonic circulation over the Plains Wednesday morning. The
northernmost upper cyclone will likely be centered near the WY/CO
border while the southernmost upper cyclone will likely be centered
over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK. The southernmost cyclone
is expected to slowly move eastward/northeastward over OK while
enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base spreads northeastward
into the mid MS Valley. The northernmost cyclone is expected to move
southwestward towards the Four Corners region.

At the surface, low associated with the southernmost upper cyclone
is forecast to begin the period over the TX/OK Red River Valley,
before gradually progressing northeastward while occluding. A cold
front extending southward from this low will move
eastward/southeastward across central and east TX, reaching the
coast by Wednesday afternoon and the TX/LA border Wednesday night. 

...Middle/Upper TX Coast...Far Southwest LA...
Upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints are expected to advect into the middle
and upper TX coast ahead of the approaching cold front, contributing
to modest instability as temperatures warm into the upper 60s/low
70s. Moderate southeasterly low-level winds are also anticipated
ahead of the front, resulting in looping low-level hodographs and
kinematic environment that supports low-level updraft rotation.
Given the modest instability, most deep updrafts will likely be
transient and disorganized. However, any more persistent updrafts
could become organized enough to produce damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado.

..Mosier.. 12/01/2020

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