SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Tue Dec 01 2020 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over the middle/upper Texas Coast and far southwest Louisiana on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level low will meander eastward across OK during the period as a belt of stronger 500-mb flow resides across the northern half of TX into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, a cold front will push eastward across central TX early in the day and be located over the TX shelf waters by late evening. Only weak surface reflection is forecast over the southern Plains by model guidance. The relatively weak low-level response will likely play a role in terms of limiting the inland penetration of a weakly unstable warm sector to the immediate TX coast. Forecast soundings show a moist and nearly saturated boundary layer with relatively poor lapse rates, despite a wind profile supporting a conditional risk for storm organization. A few transient rotating cells may develop near the upper TX coast during the day but widespread clouds and showers will limit the overall severe potential. A risk for locally damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms. Further north, a few weak elevated thunderstorms are possible across east TX during the day with this activity shifting east into the lower MS Valley late. ..Smith.. 12/01/2020
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