SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Tue Dec 01 2020

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT
PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over the
middle/upper Texas Coast and far southwest Louisiana on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid- to upper-level low will meander eastward across OK during the
period as a belt of stronger 500-mb flow resides across the northern
half of TX into the lower MS Valley.  In the low levels, a cold
front will push eastward across central TX early in the day and be
located over the TX shelf waters by late evening.  Only weak surface
reflection is forecast over the southern Plains by model guidance. 
The relatively weak low-level response will likely play a role in
terms of limiting the inland penetration of a weakly unstable warm
sector to the immediate TX coast.  Forecast soundings show a moist
and nearly saturated boundary layer with relatively poor lapse
rates, despite a wind profile supporting a conditional risk for
storm organization.  A few transient rotating cells may develop near
the upper TX coast during the day but widespread clouds and showers
will limit the overall severe potential.  A risk for locally
damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms.  Further north, a
few weak elevated thunderstorms are possible across east TX during
the day with this activity shifting east into the lower MS Valley
late.

..Smith.. 12/01/2020

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