SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Tue Dec 01 2020

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 12/01/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 01 2020/

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A highly amplified large-scale pattern over the CONUS includes an
east/northeastward-moving deep cyclone over the Eastern Seaboard,
New England, and Quebec, in addition to a southeastward-digging
trough over the High Plains. Initially, a few lightning strikes
could occur mainly over Downeast Maine through early afternoon via
weak near-coastal elevated instability, prior to the cold front
exiting the region later this afternoon.

Elsewhere, air mass modification will steadily occur over the
western Gulf of Mexico through tonight in advance of the
aforementioned High Plains upper trough and ahead of a cold front
that is expected to reach the I-35 vicinity of central Texas by 12Z
Wednesday. Moist advection beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates
will support the possibility of isolated thunderstorms along the
middle/upper Texas coastal plain late tonight, primarily in the
09-12Z time frame (and beyond). A few rotating storms could occur
off the middle Texas coast in the predawn hours of Wednesday, but
the immediate near-shore/inland potential should remain low prior to
12Z Wednesday.

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