SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 01 2020 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 12/01/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Dec 01 2020/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale pattern over the CONUS includes an east/northeastward-moving deep cyclone over the Eastern Seaboard, New England, and Quebec, in addition to a southeastward-digging trough over the High Plains. Initially, a few lightning strikes could occur mainly over Downeast Maine through early afternoon via weak near-coastal elevated instability, prior to the cold front exiting the region later this afternoon. Elsewhere, air mass modification will steadily occur over the western Gulf of Mexico through tonight in advance of the aforementioned High Plains upper trough and ahead of a cold front that is expected to reach the I-35 vicinity of central Texas by 12Z Wednesday. Moist advection beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates will support the possibility of isolated thunderstorms along the middle/upper Texas coastal plain late tonight, primarily in the 09-12Z time frame (and beyond). A few rotating storms could occur off the middle Texas coast in the predawn hours of Wednesday, but the immediate near-shore/inland potential should remain low prior to 12Z Wednesday.
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