Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CST Tue Dec 01 2020 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most recent guidance from several deterministic models suggests some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast D4/Friday and Mid-Atlantic on D5/Saturday. These models forecast a maturing mid-latitude cyclone moving through those regions. However, previous runs do not show a mature system, with most favoring a weaker, more progressive evolution. Additionally, the ECMWF, which has shown more run-to-run consistency, is forecasting mature low over the Southwest/northern Mexico which slowly drifts eastward toward the southern Plains during the weekend. All of these factor lead to a low forecast confidence for the weekend. Even with these differences, mostly stable conditions appear likely beginning D6/Sunday and continuing through early next week.
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