Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CST Tue Dec 01 2020

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Most recent guidance from several deterministic models suggests some
severe potential may materialize across the Southeast D4/Friday and
Mid-Atlantic on D5/Saturday. These models forecast a maturing
mid-latitude cyclone moving through those regions. However, previous
runs do not show a mature system, with most favoring a weaker, more
progressive evolution. Additionally, the ECMWF, which has shown more
run-to-run consistency, is forecasting mature low over the
Southwest/northern Mexico which slowly drifts eastward toward the
southern Plains during the weekend. All of these factor lead to a
low forecast confidence for the weekend. Even with these
differences, mostly stable conditions appear likely beginning
D6/Sunday and continuing through early next week.

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