SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Wed Dec 02 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An elongated upper trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS
Valley southwestward through the Southwest early Thursday morning.
A mature mid-latitude cyclone will be embedded within this upper
trough, starting the period centered over eastern OK. The cyclone is
expected to gradually shift northeastward while evolving into an
open wave. To the west of this cyclone, an embedded shortwave is
forecast to progress southwestward from the AZ/NM border into
northwest Mexico. Evolution of these systems will result in long
corridor of enhanced mid-level flow, from northern Mexico into the
Northeast States, throughout the eastern periphery of the upper
trough.

Occluded surface low associated with the upper cyclone will begin
the period over southeast OK before moving eastward and weakening
throughout the day. Secondary low will likely develop over the
immediate southern LA coast or just offshore early Thursday. This
low is expected to move eastward along the immediate coast or just
offshore throughout the period.

Isolated, predominantly elevated thunderstorms are possible along
and ahead of the occluded front as it moves gradually eastward
through the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast throughout the
day. Given the anticipated location of the secondary surface low,
inland penetration of the warm sector will be minimal, limiting the
potential for surface-based storms. The strongest shear will also be
displaced north of the better instability. These factors will keep
the severe threat very low.

..Mosier.. 12/02/2020

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