SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Wed Dec 02 2020 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An elongated upper trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley southwestward through the Southwest early Thursday morning. A mature mid-latitude cyclone will be embedded within this upper trough, starting the period centered over eastern OK. The cyclone is expected to gradually shift northeastward while evolving into an open wave. To the west of this cyclone, an embedded shortwave is forecast to progress southwestward from the AZ/NM border into northwest Mexico. Evolution of these systems will result in long corridor of enhanced mid-level flow, from northern Mexico into the Northeast States, throughout the eastern periphery of the upper trough. Occluded surface low associated with the upper cyclone will begin the period over southeast OK before moving eastward and weakening throughout the day. Secondary low will likely develop over the immediate southern LA coast or just offshore early Thursday. This low is expected to move eastward along the immediate coast or just offshore throughout the period. Isolated, predominantly elevated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the occluded front as it moves gradually eastward through the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast throughout the day. Given the anticipated location of the secondary surface low, inland penetration of the warm sector will be minimal, limiting the potential for surface-based storms. The strongest shear will also be displaced north of the better instability. These factors will keep the severe threat very low. ..Mosier.. 12/02/2020
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