SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Wed Dec 02 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast, Florida,
and the eastern Mid-Atlantic States on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the Mid
MS Valley southwestward into north TX early Friday morning.
Expectation is for this shortwave to progress eastward through the
TN Valley and Southeast, eventually moving into the Mid-Atlantic
States by early Saturday morning. As the shortwave progresses
eastward, it will pivot into a negative tilt while also developing
strong mid-level flow from its based throughout its eastern
periphery. 

Surface low accompanying this shortwave is forecast to begin the
period over coastal MS/AL before quickly moving northeastward. This
low is expected to end the period over central VA. Modest moisture
advection is anticipated ahead of this low and attendant cold front,
with low 60s dewpoints expected across the FL Panhandle Friday
afternoon and across the coastal Mid-Atlantic Friday night into
Saturday morning. Even with this moisture, abundant clouds will
limit heating and poor lapse rates will suppress overall buoyancy.
Wind profiles support a severe risk with any sustained,
surface-based updrafts, but occurrence of such an updraft will
depend on mesoscale factors difficult to predict at this forecast
length. Most likely locations for severe storms currently appear to
be over the central FL Panhandle on Friday afternoon and along the
Carolina coast late Friday night/early Saturday. However, given the
predictability issues, no areas will be delineated with this
forecast.

..Mosier.. 12/02/2020

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