SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Wed Dec 02 2020 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Southeast, Florida, and the eastern Mid-Atlantic States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the Mid MS Valley southwestward into north TX early Friday morning. Expectation is for this shortwave to progress eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast, eventually moving into the Mid-Atlantic States by early Saturday morning. As the shortwave progresses eastward, it will pivot into a negative tilt while also developing strong mid-level flow from its based throughout its eastern periphery. Surface low accompanying this shortwave is forecast to begin the period over coastal MS/AL before quickly moving northeastward. This low is expected to end the period over central VA. Modest moisture advection is anticipated ahead of this low and attendant cold front, with low 60s dewpoints expected across the FL Panhandle Friday afternoon and across the coastal Mid-Atlantic Friday night into Saturday morning. Even with this moisture, abundant clouds will limit heating and poor lapse rates will suppress overall buoyancy. Wind profiles support a severe risk with any sustained, surface-based updrafts, but occurrence of such an updraft will depend on mesoscale factors difficult to predict at this forecast length. Most likely locations for severe storms currently appear to be over the central FL Panhandle on Friday afternoon and along the Carolina coast late Friday night/early Saturday. However, given the predictability issues, no areas will be delineated with this forecast. ..Mosier.. 12/02/2020
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