SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Wed Dec 02 2020

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEAR
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of
near-coastal southeast Texas and southwestern/south-central
Louisana.

...Western Gulf Coastal Plain...
Thunderstorms continue to develop/intensify offshore of the
middle/upper TX coast late this morning as the boundary layer air
mass over the northwest Gulf of Mexico continues to slowly modify.
Advection of higher theta-e air inland has resulted in MLCAPE of up
to 500 J/kg along the middle TX coast with higher values offshore. 
Afternoon MLCAPE should average 500-750 J/kg near the coast, and
when combined with westerly deep-layer shear of 45-50 kts contribute
to a favorable environment for supercell structures or perhaps small
bowing segments. The primary uncertainty remains the degree of storm
coverage inland in advance of the eastward moving cold front, and
latest CAM guidance continues to suggest the more organized storms
should remain mostly offshore. Nevertheless, some risk for a couple
of storms capable of producing damaging winds, hail and possibly a
tornado will exist near the coast as large-scale forcing for ascent
strengthens over the area this afternoon/evening.

..Bunting.. 12/02/2020

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