SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Dec 02 2020 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of near-coastal southeast Texas and southwestern/south-central Louisiana. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 12/02/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Wed Dec 02 2020/ ...Western Gulf Coastal Plain... Thunderstorms continue to develop/intensify offshore of the middle/upper TX coast late this morning as the boundary layer air mass over the northwest Gulf of Mexico continues to slowly modify. Advection of higher theta-e air inland has resulted in MLCAPE of up to 500 J/kg along the middle TX coast with higher values offshore. Afternoon MLCAPE should average 500-750 J/kg near the coast, and when combined with westerly deep-layer shear of 45-50 kts contribute to a favorable environment for supercell structures or perhaps small bowing segments. The primary uncertainty remains the degree of storm coverage inland in advance of the eastward moving cold front, and latest CAM guidance continues to suggest the more organized storms should remain mostly offshore. Nevertheless, some risk for a couple of storms capable of producing damaging winds, hail and possibly a tornado will exist near the coast as large-scale forcing for ascent strengthens over the area this afternoon/evening.
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