Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Wed Dec 02 2020

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential appears minimal this weekend through at least the
middle of next week. Shortwave trough over the northern Mid-Atlantic
States early D4/Saturday is expected to continue progressing
northeastward off the Northeast coast. Another shortwave trough is
expected to drop from the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley into the
Mid MS/Lower OH Valley on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday, with another
shortwave likely following. This series of shortwave troughs coupled
with persistent upper ridging across the western CONUS will help
maintain a dry, stable air mass east of the Rockies through at least
D8/Wednesday.

The only severe potential appears to be early on D4/Saturday from
the Carolina coast into the Delmarva. Some of the guidance has
trended less progressive with a shortwave trough and its attendant
surface low, resulting in modest low-level moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front. Variability within the guidance curtails
predictability, but even the less progressive solution yields only
limited overall severe potential.

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