Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Wed Dec 02 2020 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears minimal this weekend through at least the middle of next week. Shortwave trough over the northern Mid-Atlantic States early D4/Saturday is expected to continue progressing northeastward off the Northeast coast. Another shortwave trough is expected to drop from the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley into the Mid MS/Lower OH Valley on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday, with another shortwave likely following. This series of shortwave troughs coupled with persistent upper ridging across the western CONUS will help maintain a dry, stable air mass east of the Rockies through at least D8/Wednesday. The only severe potential appears to be early on D4/Saturday from the Carolina coast into the Delmarva. Some of the guidance has trended less progressive with a shortwave trough and its attendant surface low, resulting in modest low-level moisture ahead of an approaching cold front. Variability within the guidance curtails predictability, but even the less progressive solution yields only limited overall severe potential.
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