SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Wed Dec 02 2020 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Outlook Update... The initially broad mid-level low centered over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region is in the process of elongating. Models indicate that the cyclonic circulation center will gradually redevelop east-northeastward across Oklahoma tonight, with the trailing larger-scale mid-level trough axis taking on more of a positive tilt. As this occurs, a 70-90 kt cyclonic, westerly 500 mb jet streak across the Texas South Plains into central Texas is forecast to back to an increasingly southwesterly component as its exit region noses across and northeast of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. On the southern fringe of the mid-level cold pool (to the north of the cyclonic 500 mb jet axis) there has been recent isolated sustained thunderstorm development near/east-northeast of Lufkin TX. Model output suggests additional isolated weak thunderstorm development is possible north/northeast of the receding southern edge of the cold pool tonight, mainly across parts of northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. There may be some further increase in pre-cold frontal low-level moistening farther to the south. However, mid/high-level subsidence and warming to the south of the propagating jet streak may tend to inhibit thunderstorm development, except where vigorous thunderstorm activity is ongoing over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the presence of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability. ..Kerr.. 12/03/2020
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