SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Wed Dec 02 2020

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
tonight.

...01Z Outlook Update...
The initially broad mid-level low centered over the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle region is in the process of elongating.  Models indicate
that the cyclonic circulation center will gradually redevelop
east-northeastward across Oklahoma tonight, with the trailing
larger-scale mid-level trough axis taking on more of a positive
tilt.  As this occurs, a 70-90 kt cyclonic, westerly 500 mb jet
streak across the Texas South Plains into central Texas is forecast
to back to an increasingly southwesterly component as its exit
region noses across and northeast of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity
overnight.

On the southern fringe of the mid-level cold pool (to the north of
the cyclonic 500 mb jet axis) there has been recent isolated
sustained thunderstorm development near/east-northeast of Lufkin TX.
Model output suggests additional isolated weak thunderstorm
development is possible north/northeast of the receding southern
edge of the cold pool tonight, mainly across parts of northern
Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas.

There may be some further increase in pre-cold frontal low-level
moistening farther to the south.  However, mid/high-level subsidence
and warming to the south of the propagating jet streak may tend to
inhibit thunderstorm development, except where vigorous thunderstorm
activity is ongoing over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the 
presence of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability.

..Kerr.. 12/03/2020

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