SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Thu Dec 03 2020 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and central/southern Florida Peninsula on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Majority of the medium-range forecast guidance places a mature mid-latitude cyclone over the central Mid-Atlantic States on Saturday morning. The only exception is the ECMWF, which is more progressive and places the cyclone off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. This more progressive solution takes the front offshore before the period begins, while the less progressive solutions leave a small portion of the central/northern Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front. Given the presence of very strong low to mid-level flow, some low severe risk is feasible across coastal NC and the VA Tidewater in the less progressive solutions. However, forecast confidence is currently too low to introduce an outlook area. Mostly stable conditions are expected outside of the Mid-Atlantic region. A few lightning flashes are possible across the central and southern FL Peninsula as a front moves through. A few lightning flashes are also possible across South TX as a shortwave trough ejects northeastward out of central Mexico and across TX. Coverage over South TX are currently expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Mosier.. 12/03/2020
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