SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Thu Dec 03 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and
central/southern Florida Peninsula on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Majority of the medium-range forecast guidance places a mature
mid-latitude cyclone over the central Mid-Atlantic States on
Saturday morning. The only exception is the ECMWF, which is more
progressive and places the cyclone off the northern Mid-Atlantic
coast. This more progressive solution takes the front offshore
before the period begins, while the less progressive solutions leave
a small portion of the central/northern Mid-Atlantic ahead of the
front. Given the presence of very strong low to mid-level flow, some
low severe risk is feasible across coastal NC and the VA Tidewater
in the less progressive solutions. However, forecast confidence is
currently too low to introduce an outlook area.

Mostly stable conditions are expected outside of the Mid-Atlantic
region. A few lightning flashes are possible across the central and
southern FL Peninsula as a front moves through. A few lightning
flashes are also possible across South TX as a shortwave trough
ejects northeastward out of central Mexico and across TX. Coverage
over South TX are currently expected to be less than 10 percent.

..Mosier.. 12/03/2020

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