SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Thu Dec 03 2020 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Florida Panhandle Friday and across the coastal Carolinas late Friday night. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low/trough located over the Mid South Friday morning will transition into an open wave and become negatively tilted Friday evening over the southern Appalachians before moving east of the VA/NC coast by early Saturday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport still-modifying air northward from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Panhandle. The lack of robust surface cyclogenesis until after sunset Friday evening over the Carolinas will likely preclude both the stronger advection processes and appreciable destabilization inland of the immediate coastal areas of the northeast Gulf of Mexico. By Friday evening, the developing surface low over the western Carolinas will undergo the initial stages of bombogenesis beginning Friday night into Saturday. Only low-mid 50s dewpoints are forecast across the Upstate of SC into western and central NC with 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE. However, intensifying deep-layer forcing for ascent coupled with weak instability will probably lead to isolated thunderstorms developing by early to mid evening. Although this activity will likely remain elevated as it organizes into a few small-scale convective bands near the low, a conditional risk for damaging gusts cannot be ruled out. By late evening, an appreciably destabilized airmass is expected over the NC coastal plain into northeast SC ahead of the gradually intensifying convection moving into the area from the west. Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s further inland to the lower 60s near the immediate coast, will contribute to weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear will support storm organization and an isolated damaging wind/brief tornado risk may develop before the activity pushes east of the coast during the late overnight hours. ..Smith.. 12/03/2020
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