SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Thu Dec 03 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Florida
Panhandle Friday and across the coastal Carolinas late Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low/trough located over the Mid South Friday morning
will transition into an open wave and become negatively tilted
Friday evening over the southern Appalachians before moving east of
the VA/NC coast by early Saturday morning.  Southerly low-level flow
will transport still-modifying air northward from the northern Gulf
of Mexico into the FL Panhandle.  The lack of robust surface
cyclogenesis until after sunset Friday evening over the Carolinas
will likely preclude both the stronger advection processes and
appreciable destabilization inland of the immediate coastal areas of
the northeast Gulf of Mexico.  

By Friday evening, the developing surface low over the western
Carolinas will undergo the initial stages of bombogenesis beginning
Friday night into Saturday.  Only low-mid 50s dewpoints are forecast
across the Upstate of SC into western and central NC with 100-200
J/kg MUCAPE.  However, intensifying deep-layer forcing for ascent
coupled with weak instability will probably lead to isolated
thunderstorms developing by early to mid evening.  Although this
activity will likely remain elevated as it organizes into a few
small-scale convective bands near the low, a conditional risk for
damaging gusts cannot be ruled out.  

By late evening, an appreciably destabilized airmass is expected
over the NC coastal plain into northeast SC ahead of the gradually
intensifying convection moving into the area from the west.  Surface
dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s further inland to the lower 60s
near the immediate coast, will contribute to weak instability. 
Strong deep-layer shear will support storm organization and an
isolated damaging wind/brief tornado risk may develop before the
activity pushes east of the coast during the late overnight hours.

..Smith.. 12/03/2020

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