SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Thu Dec 03 2020

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
tonight.

...01Z Outlook Update...
There has been some moistening on southerly low-level flow off a
still recovering boundary-layer across the north central Gulf of
Mexico.  This is occurring in a narrow corridor across Louisiana and
Mississippi, as a surface cold frontal zone begins to progress east
of the lower Mississippi Valley.  Even ahead of the front, moisture
return is mostly above a residual shallow near-surface stable layer.
 The exception is across parts of southeastern Louisiana, mainly
near the Plaquemines Parish vicinity.  

However, relatively warm and dry layers aloft continue (as of 0030Z)
to suppress convective development capable of producing lightning,
even as large-scale ascent begins to increase along and to the cool
side of the frontal zone.  Models are suggestive that this could
still change this evening, as a high-level jet begins to strengthen
across the lower Rio Grande Valley through southern portions of the
central Gulf States.  This may contribute to a focused area of
strengthening divergence aloft, initially over the central
Mississippi Vicinity before shifting north-northeastward overnight,
and support for the deep-layer lift necessary for thunderstorm
development.

..Kerr.. 12/04/2020

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