SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Thu Dec 03 2020 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Outlook Update... There has been some moistening on southerly low-level flow off a still recovering boundary-layer across the north central Gulf of Mexico. This is occurring in a narrow corridor across Louisiana and Mississippi, as a surface cold frontal zone begins to progress east of the lower Mississippi Valley. Even ahead of the front, moisture return is mostly above a residual shallow near-surface stable layer. The exception is across parts of southeastern Louisiana, mainly near the Plaquemines Parish vicinity. However, relatively warm and dry layers aloft continue (as of 0030Z) to suppress convective development capable of producing lightning, even as large-scale ascent begins to increase along and to the cool side of the frontal zone. Models are suggestive that this could still change this evening, as a high-level jet begins to strengthen across the lower Rio Grande Valley through southern portions of the central Gulf States. This may contribute to a focused area of strengthening divergence aloft, initially over the central Mississippi Vicinity before shifting north-northeastward overnight, and support for the deep-layer lift necessary for thunderstorm development. ..Kerr.. 12/04/2020
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