SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Fri Dec 04 2020

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EASTERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado or two and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible
across far eastern North Carolina, centered on 11 PM to 3 AM EST.

...Carolinas to southeast VA...
A shortwave trough over the Mid-South will amplify and become
negatively tilted as it reaches the Lower Mid-Atlantic Coast towards
12Z/Saturday. Cyclogenesis will occur during the latter half of the
period across the Carolina Piedmont into southeast VA.

Given the presence of predominately 30s and 40s surface dew points
across much of the region at present and the timing of cyclogenesis,
surface-based instability will likely be confined to eastern NC
overnight. Nevertheless, intensifying deep-layer forcing for ascent
may yield a narrow corridor of low-topped convection by late evening
near the track of the surface low amid meager buoyancy (MUCAPE
around 100 J/kg). As this spreads east into the weakly destabilizing
air mass of eastern NC, isolated severe wind gusts appear possible.
Otherwise, warm conveyor convection should increase overnight,
mainly across far eastern NC east of the US-17 corridor. Here,
enlarged low-level hodographs coincident with lower 60s surface dew
points will foster potential for a couple supercells capable of
producing tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

...FL Panhandle...
Have maintained low probabilities for a risk of locally damaging
winds from midday to late afternoon. Showers have been ongoing near
the southwest AL/FL Panhandle border within the warm conveyor region
ahead of an impinging cold front. The surface warm front remains
just offshore, except across the Apalachicola vicinity. This
boundary should gradually advance north during the day, yielding
surface-based instability across the southern portion of the
Panhandle. Amid weak tropospheric lapse rates, adequate deep-layer
shear may exist for transient mid-level updraft rotation within
convective clusters near the coast until they diminish towards
sunset.

..Grams/Goss.. 12/04/2020

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