SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Fri Dec 04 2020

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado or two and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible
across eastern North Carolina, mainly from late evening into the
overnight. Otherwise, a couple of strong wind gusts remain possible
over a portion of the Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia this
afternoon.

...20Z Update...
Only change this outlook update cycle was to shift low severe
probabilities northward into southwest Georgia. A semi-organized
band of showers/embedded thunderstorms has evolved and surface
temperatures have warmed to near 70F with some low 60s F surface
dewpoints, exceeding some earlier guidance in both regards.
Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1832 for additional short-term
details.

..Guyer.. 12/04/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Dec 04 2020/

...Eastern North Carolina...

A vigorous shortwave trough situated across AR and western TN will
transition to a negatively tilted wave as it continues through the
southern Appalachians late this afternoon and into the Carolinas
tonight. In response to the strong forcing for ascent attending this
feature, a surface low will deepen as it moves from SC this evening
to off the southeast VA coast late tonight. By mid evening this low
will be situated near the central SC/NC border with trailing cold
front extending southwestward through the central FL Panhandle. A
warm front/coastal boundary should advance inland through a portion
of eastern NC with dewpoints rising to around 60F in the warm sector
contributing to weak instability with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Farther
west across central NC, instability will remain meager (100-200 J/kg
MUCAPE). However, given the strength of mesoscale forcing along the
portion of the cold front near the surface low track, some potential
will exist for a narrow line of low-topped convection to develop
this evening. This activity will be embedded within a strong
kinematic environment with 50 kt flow just above the surface,
suggesting some of the convection could produce strong to damaging
wind gusts. Farther east in the warm sector across eastern NC,
greater instability and strong vertical shear profiles will support
potential for a few supercells and bowing segments with an attendant
threat for a couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging wind
overnight.

...Florida Panhandle...

As of late morning a warm front was situated near the coast of the
FL Panhandle with a cold front moving through the western Panhandle
into the central Gulf. As the small warm sector develops northward,
weak instability with 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE will evolve inland. The
convection currently developing along the warm conveyor belt may
undergo some intensification this afternoon as the boundary layer
destabilizes. Vertical wind profiles are supportive of a couple of 
rotating updrafts and bowing segments. The deeper forcing for ascent
will remain north of this region which combined with the modest
thermodynamic environment should remain limiting factors for a more
robust severe threat.

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