Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CST Fri Dec 04 2020

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. A mean
trough will persist across the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Tue.
During this time, an upper ridge will spread eastward from portions
of the western U.S. to the Plains. Meanwhile, a mid/upper low over
CA will become cut-off and migrate southwest over the Pacific
offshore from southern CA/northern Baja through Day 6/Wed. By Day
7/Thu, medium range guidance develops the CA/Baja upper low eastward
across northern Mexico/southern AZ/NM, with an open wave upper
trough ejecting into the southern Plains on Day 8/Fri. Overall,
surface high pressure across much of the CONUS and dearth of
boundary layer moisture will preclude severe thunderstorm potential
through at least Day 6/Wed. Thunderstorm activity may increase late
in the period as southwesterly deep layer flow increases ahead of
the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico upper low/trough. However,
severe storms appear unlikely at this time given poor northward
return of Gulf moisture in advance of this system, likely leading to
poor thermodynamics.

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