SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Fri Dec 04 2020

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z


A tornado or two and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible
across eastern North Carolina, mainly from late evening into the

Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough over the southern Appalachians.  The disturbance is forecast
to quickly move across the Carolinas/VA tonight and into the western
Atlantic by dawn Saturday.  In the low levels, a surface low is
forecast to begin rapidly deepening late tonight as it moves from
the NC/VA border to east of the Delmarva by daybreak.  An attendant
cold front will continue to push eastward across the western
Carolinas this evening and east of Cape Hatteras between 4-6am EST. 

The 00z MHX raob displayed meager instability (200 J/kg MLCAPE) due
in part to a still modifying airmass over the eastern
Carolinas/shelf waters.  Nonetheless, it seems a gradual increase in
CAPE is forecast by the models as a low-topped convective band over
the SC Midlands moves into slightly richer moisture (mid-upper 50s
to lower 60s).  As this occurs, the wind field will continue to
intensify supporting potential storm organization.  It remains
unclear whether a supercell tornado risk will develop and glance the
barrier islands or remain to the east and offshore late tonight.  It
appears the primary severe hazard will be for potential wind damage
owing to strong to locally severe gusts.

..Smith.. 12/05/2020

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