SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Dec 04 2020 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado or two and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible across eastern North Carolina, mainly from late evening into the overnight. ...Carolinas... Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Appalachians. The disturbance is forecast to quickly move across the Carolinas/VA tonight and into the western Atlantic by dawn Saturday. In the low levels, a surface low is forecast to begin rapidly deepening late tonight as it moves from the NC/VA border to east of the Delmarva by daybreak. An attendant cold front will continue to push eastward across the western Carolinas this evening and east of Cape Hatteras between 4-6am EST. The 00z MHX raob displayed meager instability (200 J/kg MLCAPE) due in part to a still modifying airmass over the eastern Carolinas/shelf waters. Nonetheless, it seems a gradual increase in CAPE is forecast by the models as a low-topped convective band over the SC Midlands moves into slightly richer moisture (mid-upper 50s to lower 60s). As this occurs, the wind field will continue to intensify supporting potential storm organization. It remains unclear whether a supercell tornado risk will develop and glance the barrier islands or remain to the east and offshore late tonight. It appears the primary severe hazard will be for potential wind damage owing to strong to locally severe gusts. ..Smith.. 12/05/2020
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