SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sat Dec 05 2020

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through the
Day 1 forecast period.

...Discussion...
A high-amplitude, complex upper pattern will continue to evolve
across the U.S. today, to include four distinct features -- an
evolving upper low shifting northward across New England, a
short-wave trough digging southeastward across the Upper Midwest, an
upper low moving east-northeastward out of Mexico into Texas, and
finally a short-wave trough that will move inland over the
Northwest.

At the surface, cold/continental high pressure will prevail across a
majority of the country, with the predominant feature by far being a
rapidly developing low that will shift northeastward just off the
New England coast, roughly in tandem with the aforementioned upper
feature crossing this region.  

Given the overall lack of unstable air over the country, risk for
thunderstorms will remain minimal in most areas.  A few lightning
flashes may occur over Cape Cod and vicinity, and over the adjacent
Atlantic waters, in tandem with ongoing surface cyclogenesis. 
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
south Florida and the Keys, and areas offshore, as a trailing cold
front associated with the northeastern U.S. surface low moves
southward across the area.  Elevated convection, including a few
lightning flashes, can also be expected across parts of East Texas
and into western Louisiana and the Arklatex, though more widespread
convection will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico.  Finally, a
stray lightning flash may occur over the Northwest, as the upper
system moves onshore.  In all areas, no severe weather is expected.

..Goss.. 12/05/2020

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