SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sat Dec 05 2020 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through the Day 1 forecast period. ...Discussion... A high-amplitude, complex upper pattern will continue to evolve across the U.S. today, to include four distinct features -- an evolving upper low shifting northward across New England, a short-wave trough digging southeastward across the Upper Midwest, an upper low moving east-northeastward out of Mexico into Texas, and finally a short-wave trough that will move inland over the Northwest. At the surface, cold/continental high pressure will prevail across a majority of the country, with the predominant feature by far being a rapidly developing low that will shift northeastward just off the New England coast, roughly in tandem with the aforementioned upper feature crossing this region. Given the overall lack of unstable air over the country, risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal in most areas. A few lightning flashes may occur over Cape Cod and vicinity, and over the adjacent Atlantic waters, in tandem with ongoing surface cyclogenesis. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south Florida and the Keys, and areas offshore, as a trailing cold front associated with the northeastern U.S. surface low moves southward across the area. Elevated convection, including a few lightning flashes, can also be expected across parts of East Texas and into western Louisiana and the Arklatex, though more widespread convection will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico. Finally, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Northwest, as the upper system moves onshore. In all areas, no severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 12/05/2020
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