SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Sat Dec 05 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z


A few strong to locally severe storms may occur across southern
Florida Sunday night and early Monday morning.

A highly amplified/complex large-scale pattern will prevail on
Sunday over the CONUS. A general prevalence of cool/stable
conditions over the CONUS will confine deep convective potential to
the Gulf of Mexico into far southern Florida.

...Southern Florida...
Have introduced severe probabilities for late-night severe potential
Sunday night into the morning hours of Monday. Weak height falls
related to the amplifying upper trough over the Appalachians will
influence weak cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico into southern
Florida, particularly Sunday night, as low-level moisture otherwise
gradually increases. Ongoing storms over the Gulf of Mexico late
Sunday may approach the Florida Keys and possibly the far southern
Florida Peninsula late Sunday night/early Monday, with the
possibility of some semi-discrete development also preceding any
complex of storms over the Gulf of Mexico. While modest overall
buoyancy and weak mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall
magnitude and likelihood of a severe risk, sufficient
moisture/instability in the presence of strengthening low/mid-level
winds will support the possibility of some strong to locally severe
storms capable of wind gusts and/or a tornado risk.

..Guyer.. 12/05/2020

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