Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CST Sat Dec 05 2020 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is not expected for much of the Day 4-8 period. Dry and stable conditions will prevail beneath an upper ridge developing eastward from the western U.S. into the central and eastern U.S. through Day 5/Wed. In the wake of the upper ridge, a shortwave trough will dig across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies on Day 6/Thu, and a persistent closed low off the southern CA/northern Baja coast will eject eastward along the northern Mexico/southwestern U.S. border. As the upper trough ejects eastward toward the southern Rockies, at least weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast. This should allow some degree of Gulf return flow ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front late Thursday into Days 7-8/Fri-Sat across TX into the northern Gulf Coast region. Medium range guidance varies in the northward extent of moisture return and the exact track of the associated surface low. While increasing potential for thunderstorms appears likely Days 7-8, severe potential is still uncertain.
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