Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CST Sat Dec 05 2020

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is not expected for much of the Day 4-8 period. Dry
and stable conditions will prevail beneath an upper ridge developing
eastward from the western U.S. into the central and eastern U.S.
through Day 5/Wed. In the wake of the upper ridge, a shortwave
trough will dig across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies on
Day 6/Thu, and a persistent closed low off the southern CA/northern
Baja coast will eject eastward along the northern
Mexico/southwestern U.S. border. As the upper trough ejects eastward
toward the southern Rockies, at least weak lee cyclogenesis is
forecast. This should allow some degree of Gulf return flow ahead of
a southeastward-advancing cold front late Thursday into Days
7-8/Fri-Sat across TX into the northern Gulf Coast region. Medium
range guidance varies in the northward extent of moisture return and
the exact track of the associated surface low. While increasing
potential for thunderstorms appears likely Days 7-8, severe
potential is still uncertain.

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