SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 AM CST Sun Dec 06 2020

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FL AND THE
KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across south
Florida and the Keys late tonight to early tomorrow morning.

...South FL and the Keys...
A shortwave trough over east TX will phase with a trough ejecting
east from IL as an upstream impulse digs south from northwest
Ontario. This evolution will aid in initial weak cyclogenesis over
the northeast Gulf tonight, followed by secondary cyclogenesis over
the Gulf Stream east of the Carolinas tomorrow morning. Poor
tropospheric lapse rates will be a limiting factor with buoyancy
likely to remain weak despite 14-16 g/kg mean-mixing ratios.
Nevertheless, consensus of guidance suggests a belt of strengthening
850-mb flow will become centered across south FL and the Keys by
09-12Z. This should occur in tandem with convective clusters across
the eastern Gulf spreading towards the region late in the period,
supporting a low probability damaging wind and tornado threat.

..Grams.. 12/06/2020

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