Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Mon Dec 07 2020

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough over the western states will shift eastward into the
Plains through Day 5/Fri. In response to height falls, lee
cyclogenesis is expected, and a surface low will develop eastward
across the central/southern Plains vicinity on Thursday into early
Friday. Southerly low level flow ahead of the surface low and
attendant cold front will bring modest Gulf moisture northward
across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss on Friday. This system will
continue to develop eastward across the Midwest and Southeast on Day
6/Sat and early Day 7/Sun. 

Isolated thunderstorm potential will increase across parts of the
southern Plains late Thursday night in a strong warm advection
regime associated with the deepening surface low and advancing
mid/upper trough. By Friday, some low-end severe potential could
exist across parts of east TX and persist eastward into the lower MS
Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity through Saturday. However, this will
largely depend on the quality of Gulf moisture return, which will
influence instability in an otherwise strongly-sheared environment.
As such, confidence remains low concerning organized severe
potential on Days 5-6/Fri-Sat, though probabilities could become
necessary in subsequent outlooks.

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