Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Mon Dec 07 2020 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the western states will shift eastward into the Plains through Day 5/Fri. In response to height falls, lee cyclogenesis is expected, and a surface low will develop eastward across the central/southern Plains vicinity on Thursday into early Friday. Southerly low level flow ahead of the surface low and attendant cold front will bring modest Gulf moisture northward across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss on Friday. This system will continue to develop eastward across the Midwest and Southeast on Day 6/Sat and early Day 7/Sun. Isolated thunderstorm potential will increase across parts of the southern Plains late Thursday night in a strong warm advection regime associated with the deepening surface low and advancing mid/upper trough. By Friday, some low-end severe potential could exist across parts of east TX and persist eastward into the lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity through Saturday. However, this will largely depend on the quality of Gulf moisture return, which will influence instability in an otherwise strongly-sheared environment. As such, confidence remains low concerning organized severe potential on Days 5-6/Fri-Sat, though probabilities could become necessary in subsequent outlooks.
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