Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Tue Dec 08 2020

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough with several embedded shortwave troughs
will slowly migrate across the Plains and central U.S. Days
4-5/Fri-Sat. Strong southwesterly flow amid height falls will result
in a strengthening surface low developing northeast from the
southern Plains early on Friday to the lower Great Lakes vicinity by
Day 6/Sun morning. Low level Gulf return flow will spread moisture
northward ahead of a cold front attendant to the low. Better-quality
moisture will be confined to the TX Gulf Coast eastward to the lower
MS Valley and thunderstorms are likely to increase by Friday
afternoon along the front. Some low-end severe threat could develop
from east TX into the lower MS Valley through Saturday, but
uncertainty remains regarding how much destabilization will be able
to occur whether moisture return will be ill-timed with the frontal
passage/strongest forcing. 

Beyond Day 5/Sat, medium range guidance varies greatly in the
evolution of the larger-scale trough over the central U.S. and
predictability is low.

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