SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CST Tue Dec 08 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of Arizona and
New Mexico into western Texas on Thursday.


A shortwave trough over the lower Colorado Valley and northwest
Mexico will eject eastward to the southern High Plains by Friday
morning. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough will develop
southeastward across the Pacific Northwest, and eventually toward
the Great Basin overnight, reinforcing a larger-scale upper trough
over the western half of the CONUS. A few thunderstorms could be
ongoing Thursday morning across parts of southern AZ. As the upper
shortwave trough shifts eastward toward the southern Rockies and
southern High Plains, southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase
midlevel moisture, while forcing for ascent overspreads the region.
Forecast soundings indicated enough elevated instability through the
-20 C layer that isolated thunderstorms should continue across parts
of southern NM. Further east, height falls over the Plains will
result in weak surface low development over TX/OK. This will allow
southerly return flow to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico and
modest boundary-layer moisture will work northward across southern,
central and eastern TX after 00z. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of southwest TX during the evening, and may
spread eastward toward the Hill Country by 12z Friday. Severe storms
are not expected with this activity.

..Leitman.. 12/09/2020

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