SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CST Tue Dec 08 2020 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico into western Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the lower Colorado Valley and northwest Mexico will eject eastward to the southern High Plains by Friday morning. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough will develop southeastward across the Pacific Northwest, and eventually toward the Great Basin overnight, reinforcing a larger-scale upper trough over the western half of the CONUS. A few thunderstorms could be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of southern AZ. As the upper shortwave trough shifts eastward toward the southern Rockies and southern High Plains, southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase midlevel moisture, while forcing for ascent overspreads the region. Forecast soundings indicated enough elevated instability through the -20 C layer that isolated thunderstorms should continue across parts of southern NM. Further east, height falls over the Plains will result in weak surface low development over TX/OK. This will allow southerly return flow to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico and modest boundary-layer moisture will work northward across southern, central and eastern TX after 00z. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southwest TX during the evening, and may spread eastward toward the Hill Country by 12z Friday. Severe storms are not expected with this activity. ..Leitman.. 12/09/2020
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