SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CST Wed Dec 09 2020

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z


Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Friday across
portions of the south-central U.S.


A large-scale upper trough over the western U.S. will deepen and
slowly shift eastward to the Plains by Saturday morning. A lead
shortwave impulse over the central/southern High Plains Friday
morning will eject east/northeast across the mid/lower MS Valley,
weakening with time. At the surface, a weak low/baroclinic zone will
extend from the Ozarks through eastern OK and into central TX during
the afternoon. Southerly low level flow will allow Gulf moisture to
spread northward across the south-central U.S., with the higher
surface dewpoints being confined to the TX Gulf Coast and southwest
LA. 60s F dewpoints may make it as far north as southern AR late
Friday night/Saturday morning, but overall, the boundary layer will
remain shallow and moisture return of poor-quality given recent cold
fronts developing far into the southern Gulf of Mexico/Yucatan
region. Nevertheless, strong ascent will spread over the southern
Plains to the lower/mid MS Valley vicinity and modest elevated
instability is forecast. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in this
warm advection regime ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front,
but severe potential is not expected.

..Leitman.. 12/09/2020

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