SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 AM CST Wed Dec 09 2020

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated general thunderstorms will be possible late tonight into
early Thursday across southern Arizona.

...Southern AZ...
A cutoff upper low west of Baja CA will transition into an open wave
as it ejects towards the AZ/Sonora border area by early Thursday.
Substantial moistening around 700 mb within the warm conveyor
downstream will promote eventual showers tonight, initially across
southeast AZ. Isolated thunder appears more probable across
southwest AZ along the periphery of the elevated moisture return,
where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper closer to the cold core.
RAP/NAM forecast soundings suggest meager buoyancy should be present
atop an initially very dry sub-cloud layer, which would support
overnight convection with minimal rainfall.

..Grams.. 12/09/2020

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