SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Wed Dec 09 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of Arizona and
New Mexico into western and central Texas on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the
Lower CO River Valley before opening up and progressing across the
Southwest as an open wave. By early Friday morning, this shortwave
trough is expected to extend across the central and southern High
Plains. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist throughout
the eastern periphery of this system, gradually expanding
eastward/northeastward just ahead of the shortwave as it moves

At the same time, a northern-stream shortwave will move across the
Canadian Prairie Provinces and adjacent northern Plains. Surface low
attendant to this system is forecast to be centered over western MN
early Thursday morning. This low is then forecast to progress
eastward through the Upper Great Lakes and eastern/southern Ontario.
Cold front associated with this low is expected to push
southward/southeastward through the Upper MS Valley and central
Plains. By early Friday, this cold front will likely extend from
central Lower MI southwestward into the TX Panhandle.

Cold mid-level temperatures and modest low/mid-level moisture
associated with the southern-stream shortwave trough may result in
modest instability and a few updrafts deep enough to produce
lightning. Isolated lightning is also possible within the broad warm
sector over the southern Plains early Friday morning. In this area,
the approach of both the southern-stream shortwave and the surface
cold front will aid in northward low-level moisture return across
the southern Plains. This modest moisture may result in modest
elevated instability, which could support a few deeper updrafts
within the broad warm-air advection regime.

..Mosier.. 12/09/2020

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