SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Wed Dec 09 2020 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico into western and central Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the Lower CO River Valley before opening up and progressing across the Southwest as an open wave. By early Friday morning, this shortwave trough is expected to extend across the central and southern High Plains. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist throughout the eastern periphery of this system, gradually expanding eastward/northeastward just ahead of the shortwave as it moves eastward. At the same time, a northern-stream shortwave will move across the Canadian Prairie Provinces and adjacent northern Plains. Surface low attendant to this system is forecast to be centered over western MN early Thursday morning. This low is then forecast to progress eastward through the Upper Great Lakes and eastern/southern Ontario. Cold front associated with this low is expected to push southward/southeastward through the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. By early Friday, this cold front will likely extend from central Lower MI southwestward into the TX Panhandle. Cold mid-level temperatures and modest low/mid-level moisture associated with the southern-stream shortwave trough may result in modest instability and a few updrafts deep enough to produce lightning. Isolated lightning is also possible within the broad warm sector over the southern Plains early Friday morning. In this area, the approach of both the southern-stream shortwave and the surface cold front will aid in northward low-level moisture return across the southern Plains. This modest moisture may result in modest elevated instability, which could support a few deeper updrafts within the broad warm-air advection regime. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2020
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