SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Wed Dec 09 2020

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late tonight into early
Thursday across southern Arizona.

...20Z Update...
No change needed to the previous forecast. Isolated lightning is
still possible later tonight/early tomorrow morning ahead of an
upper low across southern AZ.

..Mosier.. 12/09/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Wed Dec 09 2020/

...Southern AZ...
A cutoff upper low west of Baja CA will evolve into an open wave as
it ejects towards the AZ/Sonora border area by early Thursday.
Substantial moistening around 700 mb within the warm conveyor
downstream will contribute to an increase in rain showers tonight,
initially across southeast AZ. Isolated thunderstorms will also be
possible, and more probable across southwest AZ along the periphery
of the elevated moisture return, where mid-level lapse rates will be
steeper closer to the upper low. 12z forecast soundings from the
RAP/NAM suggest limited buoyancy should be present atop an initially
very dry sub-cloud layer, which would support overnight convection
with minimal rainfall.

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