SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic general thunderstorms are expected over the Southwest this afternoon and the southern Great Plains tonight into early Friday. ...20Z Update... Only change needed to the prevailing forecast was to trim the western edge of the thunder line based on the current location of the upper low. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms are still possible this evening across southeast AZ and southwest NM. A few thunderstorms are also still expected later tonight/early tomorrow morning within a developing warm conveyor across the southern Plains. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020/ ...Synopsis... Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with cold temperatures aloft (-20C at 500 mb) and forcing for ascent attending a shortwave trough moving through AZ as of late morning will maintain weak instability and a modest threat for a few thunderstorms from AZ into western NM today. As the shortwave trough moves farther east into the southern Plains tonight, additional shallow convection will likely develop along the evolving warm conveyor belt where instability might become sufficient for a few lightning flashes.
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