SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic general thunderstorms are expected over the Southwest this
afternoon and the southern Great Plains tonight into early Friday.

...20Z Update...
Only change needed to the prevailing forecast was to trim the
western edge of the thunder line based on the current location of
the upper low. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms are still possible
this evening across southeast AZ and southwest NM. A few
thunderstorms are also still expected later tonight/early tomorrow
morning within a developing warm conveyor across the southern
Plains.

..Mosier.. 12/10/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 10 2020/

...Synopsis...

Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with cold temperatures
aloft (-20C at 500 mb) and forcing for ascent attending a shortwave
trough moving through AZ as of late morning will maintain weak
instability and a modest threat for a few thunderstorms from AZ into
western NM today. As the shortwave trough moves farther east into
the southern Plains tonight, additional shallow convection will
likely develop along the evolving warm conveyor belt where
instability might become sufficient for a few lightning flashes.

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