SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible today across parts of central/east Texas, southeast Oklahoma, western/central Arkansas, and northwest Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move from the southern Rockies east-northeastward to the mid MS Valley during the period. In the low levels, a low initially over northeast OK will develop northeastward through the Ozarks while deepening, and reach central IL by daybreak Saturday. A cold front over parts of OK and northwest TX will accelerate southeastward late in the day and push through much of AR and MO by early Saturday. ...TX-OK east to the MS Valley... Southerly low-level flow will contribute to moisture streaming northward as a still-modifying airmass gradually destabilizes during the day. Models show surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s near the coast to around 60 near the Red River. Scattered to widespread clouds and modest to relatively poor lapse rates are forecast across the warm sector. Only limited diurnal heating is expected but 100-1000 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast. Low-level shear is currently progged to remain modest across much of TX, despite strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow. A linear band of showers/storms will likely be ongoing across central OK this morning with this band extending southward into north-central and central TX during the day. A few invigorated downdrafts could potentially yield a localized risk for damaging gusts as this activity moves east during the period. ..Smith.. 12/11/2020
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