SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 PM CST Thu Dec 10 2020

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts are possible today across parts of
central/east Texas, southeast Oklahoma, western/central Arkansas,
and northwest Louisiana.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the southern Rockies
east-northeastward to the mid MS Valley during the period.  In the
low levels, a low initially over northeast OK will develop
northeastward through the Ozarks while deepening, and reach central
IL by daybreak Saturday.  A cold front over parts of OK and
northwest TX will accelerate southeastward late in the day and push
through much of AR and MO by early Saturday.  

...TX-OK east to the MS Valley...
Southerly low-level flow will contribute to moisture streaming
northward as a still-modifying airmass gradually destabilizes during
the day.  Models show surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s
near the coast to around 60 near the Red River.  Scattered to
widespread clouds and modest to relatively poor lapse rates are
forecast across the warm sector.  Only limited diurnal heating is
expected but 100-1000 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast.  Low-level shear is
currently progged to remain modest across much of TX, despite strong
mid- to high-level southwesterly flow.  A linear band of
showers/storms will likely be ongoing across central OK this morning
with this band extending southward into north-central and central TX
during the day.  A few invigorated downdrafts could potentially
yield a localized risk for damaging gusts as this activity moves
east during the period.

..Smith.. 12/11/2020

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