SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated strong to damaging winds are possible mainly from east Texas into a small portion of the lower Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the early evening, with a brief tornado also possible in southeast Texas. ...East Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley... As of late this morning a cold front was situated from a weak surface low in northeast KS southwestward through southeast OK to just north of Midland in west TX. A weakly unstable warm sector is present across central through east TX where surface dewpoints range from mid 50s in north central TX to mid 60s F near the coast. Widespread clouds and ongoing areas of showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms in addition to the modest low-level moisture will considerably limit instability with MLCAPE from 200-400 J/kg. Forcing for ascent along the warm conveyor belt associated with a progressive low-amplitude shortwave trough will maintain this area of precipitation eastward into the lower MS Valley. Vertical wind profiles and the most favorable low-level hodographs for organized severe storms will reside in the warm sector where instability is meager, limiting the overall severe threat. The best chance for a few stronger storms might evolve along the southern portion of the conveyor belt from east central and southeast TX into far western LA by early evening where the influx of higher theta-e air will be greatest. These storms may pose a modest risk for mainly a couple of strong wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also remain sufficient for a conditional risk for a brief tornado. A narrow corridor of clearing and modest destabilization will occur west of the cloud shield and just east of the cold front where a few thunderstorms might develop along the front from north central into northeast TX. However, weakening and veered low-level winds suggest the severe threat should remain limited to a brief strong wind gust or two at best. ..Dial/Moore.. 12/11/2020
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