SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Fri Dec 11 2020

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
TEXAS INTO A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Very isolated strong to damaging winds are possible mainly from east
Texas into a small portion of the lower Mississippi Valley from late
afternoon into the early evening, with a brief tornado also possible
in southeast Texas.

...East Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley...

As of late this morning a cold front was situated from a weak
surface low in northeast KS southwestward through southeast OK to
just north of Midland in west TX. A weakly unstable warm sector is
present across central through east TX where surface dewpoints range
from mid 50s in north central TX to mid 60s F near the coast.
Widespread clouds and ongoing areas of showers with embedded
isolated thunderstorms in addition to the modest low-level moisture
will considerably limit instability with MLCAPE from 200-400 J/kg.
Forcing for ascent along the warm conveyor belt associated with a
progressive low-amplitude shortwave trough will maintain this area
of precipitation eastward into the lower MS Valley. Vertical wind
profiles and the most favorable low-level hodographs for organized
severe storms will reside in the warm sector where instability is
meager, limiting the overall severe threat. The best chance for a
few stronger storms might evolve along the southern portion of the
conveyor belt from east central and southeast TX into far western LA
by early evening where the influx of higher theta-e air will be
greatest. These storms may pose a modest risk for mainly a couple of
strong wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also remain sufficient
for a conditional risk for a brief tornado. 

A narrow corridor of clearing and modest destabilization will occur
west of the cloud shield and just east of the cold front where a few
thunderstorms might develop along the front from north central into
northeast TX. However, weakening and veered low-level winds suggest
the severe threat should remain limited to a brief strong wind gust
or two at best.

..Dial/Moore.. 12/11/2020

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