SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Fri Dec 11 2020

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a vigorous mid-level
shortwave trough over OK.  A pre-frontal band of weak convection
extends from the Ozarks southward to the Upper Coast of TX.  As the
mid-level trough moves northeastward reaching the mid MS Valley by
early Saturday morning, an extensive shield of showers and a few
widely spaced thunderstorms is forecast to shift eastward along the
northwest Gulf Coast.  The evening raob from Corpus Christi showed
weak instability (300 J/kg MUCAPE) but the Lake Charles, LA raob was
almost void of MUCAPE (11 J/kg).  It appears the pre-frontal
shower/thunderstorm shield over east TX is moving east of the
instability axis and will likely outrun the development of
appreciable instability this evening.  Given this probable scenario,
have removed low-severe probabilities over the northwest Gulf Coast.
 
Farther north, a few lightning flashes are possible tonight from AR
northeastward to central IL.

..Smith.. 12/12/2020

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