SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Fri Dec 11 2020 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a vigorous mid-level shortwave trough over OK. A pre-frontal band of weak convection extends from the Ozarks southward to the Upper Coast of TX. As the mid-level trough moves northeastward reaching the mid MS Valley by early Saturday morning, an extensive shield of showers and a few widely spaced thunderstorms is forecast to shift eastward along the northwest Gulf Coast. The evening raob from Corpus Christi showed weak instability (300 J/kg MUCAPE) but the Lake Charles, LA raob was almost void of MUCAPE (11 J/kg). It appears the pre-frontal shower/thunderstorm shield over east TX is moving east of the instability axis and will likely outrun the development of appreciable instability this evening. Given this probable scenario, have removed low-severe probabilities over the northwest Gulf Coast. Farther north, a few lightning flashes are possible tonight from AR northeastward to central IL. ..Smith.. 12/12/2020
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