SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Dec 12 2020

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z


Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated through early Sunday
over parts of the contiguous U.S.

...IN/MI/OH Border Area...
A slowly deepening surface cyclone near southern Lake MI will track
northeast into Georgian Bay by evening. The northern extent of a
narrow warm sector characterized by low 50s surface dew points
should move east in tandem with the cyclone across IN before
occluding across OH. 12Z observed ILX sounding sampled rather cold
500 mb temperatures near -24 C with water vapor imagery suggesting a
mid-level dry slot will sweep northeast across the southern Great
Lakes through midday. This will aid in destabilization despite
probable stratus limiting boundary-layer heating. Nevertheless,
MLCAPE will likely remain meager at or below 250 J/kg. The presence
of 35-45 kt 850-mb flow just southeast of the surface cyclone may
support locally gusty winds with low-topped convection that can form
later this morning into early afternoon.

..Grams.. 12/12/2020

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