SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Dec 12 2020 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated through early Sunday over parts of the contiguous U.S. ...IN/MI/OH Border Area... A slowly deepening surface cyclone near southern Lake MI will track northeast into Georgian Bay by evening. The northern extent of a narrow warm sector characterized by low 50s surface dew points should move east in tandem with the cyclone across IN before occluding across OH. 12Z observed ILX sounding sampled rather cold 500 mb temperatures near -24 C with water vapor imagery suggesting a mid-level dry slot will sweep northeast across the southern Great Lakes through midday. This will aid in destabilization despite probable stratus limiting boundary-layer heating. Nevertheless, MLCAPE will likely remain meager at or below 250 J/kg. The presence of 35-45 kt 850-mb flow just southeast of the surface cyclone may support locally gusty winds with low-topped convection that can form later this morning into early afternoon. ..Grams.. 12/12/2020
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