SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sat Dec 12 2020 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible through early afternoon over the Ohio Valley and late tonight into early Sunday over a portion of Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region... Surface low situated over lower MI will accompany a low amplitude, but vigorous shortwave trough into the lower Great Lakes today. The Trailing cold front will advance east through the OH and TN Valleys. Due to limited low-level moisture and widespread clouds, the pre-frontal warm sector is only weakly unstable with a narrow corridor of 200-300 J/kg MUCAPE. As of late morning, a band of showers and thunderstorms persists within zone of deeper forcing along and just ahead of the front from IN into western OH. Activity is embedded within 40-60 kt flow in the 1-5 km layer. A strong wind gust or two cannot be ruled out, mainly from a portion of eastern IN into west central OH. However, severe threat should remain limited due to the very marginal thermodynamic environment and a tendency for deeper forcing to shift northeast into the Great Lakes with time. ...Oklahoma and North Texas... A shortwave trough now moving into the Great Basin will amplify as it reaches the southern High Plains late tonight. Steepening 700-500 mb lapse rates and a strengthening southerly low-level jet, within a zone of increasing forcing for ascent, might result in a convective layer deep enough for a few lightning flashes late in the period from a portion of northern TX into southern OK. ..Dial.. 12/12/2020
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