SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Sat Dec 12 2020

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible through early afternoon over the
Ohio Valley and late tonight into early Sunday over a portion of
Oklahoma and north Texas.

...Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region...

Surface low situated over lower MI will accompany a low amplitude,
but vigorous shortwave trough into the lower Great Lakes today. The
Trailing cold front will advance east through the OH and TN Valleys.
Due to limited low-level moisture and widespread clouds, the
pre-frontal warm sector is only weakly unstable with a narrow
corridor of 200-300 J/kg MUCAPE. As of late morning, a band of
showers and thunderstorms persists within zone of deeper forcing
along and just ahead of the front from IN into western OH. Activity
is embedded within 40-60 kt flow in the 1-5 km layer. A strong wind
gust or two cannot be ruled out, mainly from a portion of eastern IN
into west central OH. However, severe threat should remain limited
due to the very marginal thermodynamic environment and a tendency
for deeper forcing to shift northeast into the Great Lakes with
time.  

...Oklahoma and North Texas...

A shortwave trough now moving into the Great Basin will amplify as
it reaches the southern High Plains late tonight. Steepening 700-500
mb lapse rates and a strengthening southerly low-level jet, within a
zone of increasing forcing for ascent, might result in a convective
layer deep enough for a few lightning flashes late in the period
from a portion of northern TX into southern OK.

..Dial.. 12/12/2020

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