SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A few damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes are possible across
a portion of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana, this afternoon
to early evening.

...Southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana...

Late this morning a warm front extends from a weak surface low in
southeast TX, eastward to near Palacios TX and into the northwestern
Gulf. The front will move north through the day, likely reaching the
Houston metro early this afternoon and continuing into the southwest
LA coastal area by late afternoon. Rich low-level moisture with
upper 60s to 70 F dewpoints reside along and south of the warm
front, and will contribute to MLCAPE from 800-1200 J/kg. Numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms are developing across southeast
TX within corridor of isentropic ascent north of this boundary. This
activity will remain elevated with minimal severe risk. A somewhat
greater threat for severe storms should evolve this afternoon. Some
CAMs suggest surface-based storms will develop along confluence
boundaries just offshore. A couple of these storms might move inland
and interact with the warm front where low-level hodographs with
200-400 m2/s2 storm relative helicity and strong effective bulk
shear will support potential for supercells capable of producing a
tornado or two. Otherwise, additional surface based storms will be
possible as the cold front advances southeast and interacts with the
moist warm sector. Storms might eventually evolve into linear
structures along the cold front this evening as they spread east
into LA with a threat for mainly a few strong to damaging wind
gusts. The marginal thermodynamic environment with weak lapse rates
and widespread low clouds, along with tendency for deeper forcing
for ascent to remain north of warm sector, could potentially serve
as limiting factors for a more robust severe threat.

..Dial/Moore.. 12/13/2020

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