SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward from the Southeast/TN Valley region across the Carolinas on Monday. A weak surface low initially over northern GA/western SC should likewise develop northeastward across the Carolinas Monday morning while gradually deepening, before advancing offshore Monday afternoon. A cold front attendant to this surface low will sweep eastward across these regions through the day. Some low-level moisture return should occur ahead of the surface low and cold front across the central/eastern Carolinas and eastern GA early in the period. However, forecast soundings across these areas indicate that very poor low/mid-level lapse rates and modest diurnal heating should hamper the development of meaningful boundary-layer instability. Still, isolated lightning flashes may occur with any convection occurring along/ahead of the cold front given the weak elevated buoyancy that should be in place. A rather strong (45-55 kt) southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to develop over parts of eastern NC/SC by midday, and it is not entirely out of the question that a strong wind gust or two could be observed as low-topped storms move quickly east-northeastward into areas with greater low-level moisture. Still, it appears that more robust convective development will likely occur over the Gulf Stream and offshore from the Outer Banks of NC Monday afternoon. Therefore, no severe wind probabilities have been included at this time. ..Gleason.. 12/13/2020
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