SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward from the
Southeast/TN Valley region across the Carolinas on Monday. A weak
surface low initially over northern GA/western SC should likewise
develop northeastward across the Carolinas Monday morning while
gradually deepening, before advancing offshore Monday afternoon. A
cold front attendant to this surface low will sweep eastward across
these regions through the day.

Some low-level moisture return should occur ahead of the surface low
and cold front across the central/eastern Carolinas and eastern GA
early in the period. However, forecast soundings across these areas
indicate that very poor low/mid-level lapse rates and modest diurnal
heating should hamper the development of meaningful boundary-layer
instability. Still, isolated lightning flashes may occur with any
convection occurring along/ahead of the cold front given the weak
elevated buoyancy that should be in place.

A rather strong (45-55 kt) southwesterly low-level jet is forecast
to develop over parts of eastern NC/SC by midday, and it is not
entirely out of the question that a strong wind gust or two could be
observed as low-topped storms move quickly east-northeastward into
areas with greater low-level moisture. Still, it appears that more
robust convective development will likely occur over the Gulf Stream
and offshore from the Outer Banks of NC Monday afternoon. Therefore,
no severe wind probabilities have been included at this time.

..Gleason.. 12/13/2020

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