Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

A significant, remnant short wave perturbation, accelerating out of
the southern Great Plains by Tuesday, may reach the southern Mid
Atlantic coast by Wednesday evening.  As it approaches the coast,
medium-range models indicate that it will support substantive
further deepening of a frontal wave initially developing off the
South Carolina coast by daybreak Wednesday.  It might not be
entirely out of the question that a moistening and destabilizing
warm sector boundary layer could spread across parts of the North
Carolina Outer and Inner Banks vicinity Wednesday afternoon or
evening.  However, at this point, this seems a low probability, and
it is not clear that this would support more than a low severe
thunderstorm risk.

Otherwise, mid/upper flow is forecast to become more zonal across
Canada later this week through next weekend, with much of the U.S.
remaining under the influence of branching westerlies emanating from
the mid-latitude Pacific.  It appears that this may include a number
of relatively fast moving short wave perturbations.  While the
potential for significant surface cyclogenesis appears low, even if
one of these is able to support at least modest cyclogenesis near
Gulf coastal areas, it is not clear that the Gulf boundary layer
will be able to modify sufficiently to support a substantive inland
return flow of moisture.

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