SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity of North Carolina and Gulf coastal areas of the northern Florida Peninsula Wednesday, posing at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Little change in the general large-scale pattern is expected from Tuesday into Wednesday. Stable conditions will prevail across much of the U.S., except along a northwestward sloping frontal zone extending across the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Aside from parts of northern Florida/the northern Florida Peninsula, the surface front is expected to mostly remain offshore. However, moisture return above the frontal inversion, inland of coastal areas, may contribute to areas of very weak CAPE. This may contribute to at least low probabilities for convection capable of producing lightning, as a vigorous remnant short wave perturbation rapidly accelerates northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Initially, there may be a couple of developing waves along the frontal zone, one over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and another off the South Carolina coast. However, as the mid-level perturbation approaches the Mid Atlantic coast, the trailing wave is expected to weaken as the lead wave becomes more prominent. Substantive further deepening is forecast as a developing cyclone center tracks near or across the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity into areas off the Mid Atlantic coast by Wednesday evening. ...Eastern North Carolina... There appears at least some possibility that the track of the developing cyclone may allow for at least a weakly destabilizing warm sector boundary layer to overspread the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. If this occurs, it probably will be in the presence of wind profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and sizable, clockwise curved low-level hodographs, supportive of supercell convection posing potential to produce a tornado or damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Florida/Florida Peninsula... A signal exists in the latest model output that a cluster of thunderstorms will spread into coastal areas by Wednesday afternoon. Initially supported by moderate boundary-layer CAPE over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, an organized line of vigorous thunderstorms may develop along the leading edge of this cluster, in the presence of sheared, 30-50+ kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Although the environment may become progressively less stable into coastal areas, with instability inland also remaining poor, it is possible that a damaging wind/isolated tornado risk could at least develop into coastal areas between Tampa and the Big Bend vicinity, before diminishing. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2020
There’s more click here.