SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds might occur across a portion of eastern North Carolina between Noon and 3 PM EST. ...Eastern NC... A shortwave trough will cross the southern Appalachians this morning and move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by early evening. Attendant surface cyclone near the northeast GA/northwest SC border should track quickly northeast and reach the VA/NC coastal border by early afternoon. A low-topped swath of showers, ongoing near and south of the cyclone along the surface cold front, should persist in tandem with the track of the cyclone. This activity will likely remain elevated through about midday and may produce little if any lightning. Overnight guidance is fairly consistent that a plume of mid 60s surface dew points currently near the South Atlantic Coast will advect north across the far eastern portion of NC by early afternoon. This should yield meager surface-based instability with MLCAPE holding below 500 J/kg. As the remnant swath of showers approaches, an uptick in convective intensity and potential evolution to a narrow low-topped squall line with embedded thunderstorms is plausible. Despite southwesterly surface winds across this narrow warm sector, very strong 850-mb winds in excess of 60 kts could be mixed towards the surface and yield a risk for strong to isolated severe gusts prior to the convection progressing offshore of the Outer Banks. ..Grams.. 12/14/2020
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