SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 AM CST Mon Dec 14 2020

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds might occur across a portion of eastern
North Carolina between Noon and 3 PM EST.

...Eastern NC...
A shortwave trough will cross the southern Appalachians this morning
and move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by early evening. Attendant
surface cyclone near the northeast GA/northwest SC border should
track quickly northeast and reach the VA/NC coastal border by early
afternoon. A low-topped swath of showers, ongoing near and south of
the cyclone along the surface cold front, should persist in tandem
with the track of the cyclone. This activity will likely remain
elevated through about midday and may produce little if any
lightning.

Overnight guidance is fairly consistent that a plume of mid 60s
surface dew points currently near the South Atlantic Coast will
advect north across the far eastern portion of NC by early
afternoon. This should yield meager surface-based instability with
MLCAPE holding below 500 J/kg. As the remnant swath of showers
approaches, an uptick in convective intensity and potential
evolution to a narrow low-topped squall line with embedded
thunderstorms is plausible. Despite southwesterly surface winds
across this narrow warm sector, very strong 850-mb winds in excess
of 60 kts could be mixed towards the surface and yield a risk for
strong to isolated severe gusts prior to the convection progressing
offshore of the Outer Banks.

..Grams.. 12/14/2020

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