SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Only general thunderstorm activity is possible across southern
portions of the central Gulf Coast states.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A powerful upper trough will move across the Plains and to the MS
Valley by Wednesday morning, providing large-scale lift through the
period. A surface low will translate southeast across TX during the
day as cool air drives in from behind, keeping the better low-level
moisture over the Gulf of Mexico. Given high pressure in place ahead
of this upper trough, little in the way of destabilization is
expected. An exception will be in the warm advection regime
preceding the upper trough from LA into MS and AL, where rain and
embedded thunderstorms are possible mainly after 00Z. Forecast
soundings indicate little MUCAPE will be present, but likely
sufficient for scattered lightning flashes. Severe weather is
unlikely given the weak instability.

..Jewell.. 12/15/2020

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