SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2020 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Only general thunderstorm activity is possible across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A powerful upper trough will move across the Plains and to the MS Valley by Wednesday morning, providing large-scale lift through the period. A surface low will translate southeast across TX during the day as cool air drives in from behind, keeping the better low-level moisture over the Gulf of Mexico. Given high pressure in place ahead of this upper trough, little in the way of destabilization is expected. An exception will be in the warm advection regime preceding the upper trough from LA into MS and AL, where rain and embedded thunderstorms are possible mainly after 00Z. Forecast soundings indicate little MUCAPE will be present, but likely sufficient for scattered lightning flashes. Severe weather is unlikely given the weak instability. ..Jewell.. 12/15/2020
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