SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2020

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over the central
Gulf Coast region.

...Southeast LA...
A large upper trough is digging across the central/southern Plains
today, with low-level cyclogenesis expected later today and tonight
over the western Gulf of Mexico.  Considerable thunderstorm activity
is forecast to occur off the TX/LA coast late tonight as the surface
low tracks near the coast.  One or two of the warm-sector storms
could approach the Delta region of southeast LA after midnight. 
While there would be some conditional risk of damaging winds or a
brief tornado with this activity, the very small temporal/areal
window of opportunity suggests the overall risk is less than 5%.

..Hart.. 12/15/2020

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