SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms might impact parts of coastal
North Carolina and the Gulf coastal areas of the northern Florida
Peninsula Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

Shortwave trough that will be located over the lower MS Valley early
Wednesday will continue east northeast through the TN Valley during
the afternoon and Middle Atlantic region Wednesday evening. A weak
surface cyclone associated with this feature will be situated over
the central Gulf Coast region at the start of the period, but will
weaken as it moves east. With the arrival of deeper ascent within an
upper jet entrance region accompanying the approaching shortwave
trough, somewhat stronger cyclogenesis is forecast along baroclinic
zone across the coastal Carolinas during the day. This surface low
will subsequently develop northeast through southeast VA. A small
moist warm sector may develop inland over the FL Panhandle during
the morning as a warm front moves onshore.

...Coastal North Carolina...

A small warm sector will likely advect into coastal NC during the
afternoon as a surface low develops inland. This will contribute to
destabilization of the boundary layer with MLCAPE from 300-600 J/kg
possible. A few thunderstorms may develop, mainly east of deepening
surface low along and north of the warm front by early to mid
afternoon. These storms will be near surface based within a strongly
sheared environment, where large low-level hodographs will support
potential for a couple of supercells with low-level mesocyclones.
The main potential limiting factors are the marginal thermodynamic
environment and small window for storms to organize. Nevertheless
some threat will exist for a few strong wind gusts and a tornado or
two, conditional upon sufficient boundary layer destabilization.
This region will continue to be monitored for a possible upgrade to
SLGT risk in day 1 updates.

...Gulf coastal areas of northern Florida...

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of a cold front
over the northern Gulf and extending into the western FL Panhandle.
A marginally unstable small warm sector is expected to develop
inland suggesting storms along coastal portions of the Panhandle may
become surface based with wind profiles supportive of supercells.
Additional storms will reach the western FL coast later in the
afternoon, and a few of these storms might remain severe as they
spread inland along the coast before weakening farther inland. It
still appears the more robust severe threat will remain offshore for
most of this region, but an upgrade to SLGT risk might still be
warranted in day 1 updates.

..Dial.. 12/15/2020

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