SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Dec 15 2020 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms might impact parts of coastal North Carolina and the Gulf coastal areas of the northern Florida Peninsula Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough that will be located over the lower MS Valley early Wednesday will continue east northeast through the TN Valley during the afternoon and Middle Atlantic region Wednesday evening. A weak surface cyclone associated with this feature will be situated over the central Gulf Coast region at the start of the period, but will weaken as it moves east. With the arrival of deeper ascent within an upper jet entrance region accompanying the approaching shortwave trough, somewhat stronger cyclogenesis is forecast along baroclinic zone across the coastal Carolinas during the day. This surface low will subsequently develop northeast through southeast VA. A small moist warm sector may develop inland over the FL Panhandle during the morning as a warm front moves onshore. ...Coastal North Carolina... A small warm sector will likely advect into coastal NC during the afternoon as a surface low develops inland. This will contribute to destabilization of the boundary layer with MLCAPE from 300-600 J/kg possible. A few thunderstorms may develop, mainly east of deepening surface low along and north of the warm front by early to mid afternoon. These storms will be near surface based within a strongly sheared environment, where large low-level hodographs will support potential for a couple of supercells with low-level mesocyclones. The main potential limiting factors are the marginal thermodynamic environment and small window for storms to organize. Nevertheless some threat will exist for a few strong wind gusts and a tornado or two, conditional upon sufficient boundary layer destabilization. This region will continue to be monitored for a possible upgrade to SLGT risk in day 1 updates. ...Gulf coastal areas of northern Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of a cold front over the northern Gulf and extending into the western FL Panhandle. A marginally unstable small warm sector is expected to develop inland suggesting storms along coastal portions of the Panhandle may become surface based with wind profiles supportive of supercells. Additional storms will reach the western FL coast later in the afternoon, and a few of these storms might remain severe as they spread inland along the coast before weakening farther inland. It still appears the more robust severe threat will remain offshore for most of this region, but an upgrade to SLGT risk might still be warranted in day 1 updates. ..Dial.. 12/15/2020
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